A system dynamics simulation tool for the management of extreme events in urban transportation systems

摘要

The objective of the paper is to present a simulation-based interactive environment that could help decision-makers to evaluate the direct, indirect, social and economic effects of a public transportation system closedown. The methodology that was used for the development of the simulator is system dynamics, because it is used to understand how a system's behaviour emerges and how insights can be gained into how policy changes might alter the very same behaviour. The simulator is based on two simulation models that investigate the importance of an urban transportation system in two different time frameworks. The main results demonstrate that the behaviour of the passengers affects the operation of the transportation system and consequently, the economic activity of the entire urban environment. Finally, the simulator and the tested policies demonstrated that the improvement of transportation drives the economic development of an urban environment.