Urban adaptive transportation system in extreme precipitation: System dynamic analysis based on Shanghai

摘要

Extreme precipitation is a major challenge affecting the normal functions of urban transportation, particularly in the context of climate change. National and municipal administrations have responded to the increased probability of extreme precipitation events by expanding drainage facilities, or by warning the public in time. In this study, we applied a dynamic system framework to examine how the interdependent factors in extreme precipitation from engineering and society interact with each other and form an adaptive system. Based on the concept of a complex adaptive system, we identified the adaptive units and paths of the system. We set the model parameters using data from Shanghai, and simulated the dynamic process of the system to 2032. We found that the effects of extreme precipitation on an urban transportation infrastructure can be controlled based on the longterm operation of the adaptive system, and that the adaptive units in the physical, social, and economic subsystems are connected with each other.