Out of equilibrium: grounds, basics, policies, and accounts

摘要

Current regulation in EU cohesion policy lays emphasis on ex ante impact evaluations. This kind of evaluation technique is based on the assumption of a theory of the process of change ('theory of change') the policy is meant to activate. The application of theories of change based on a concept of equilibrium is likely to fail capturing essential factors at play in actual dynamics: by definition, equilibrium is a situation in which change (learning) is not liable to occur. Having this policy issue in mind, the essentials of Amendola and Gaffard's sequential model are here presented: its Hicksian grounds, its basic concepts, its implied perspective on policy making and, eventually, a simplified accounting version. This version of Amendola and Gaffard's out-of-equilibrium model is meant to serve as a basis to develop purpose-built theories of change: their associated accounts can be employed to devise a system of satellite accounts that is especially fitted out to monitor and thus evaluate the impact of a policy intervention.