Forecasting Life Cycle CO_2 Emissions of Electrified Vehicles by 2030 Considering Japan's Energy Mix

摘要

This paper presents a comprehensive life-cycle analysis of C〇2 (LCCO2) emissions from automobiles usinga hybrid life-cycle inventory approach to predict thegrowth of electrified vehicles in Japan. Herein, the hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), plug-in HEV (PHEV), andbattery electric vehicle (BEV) versions of the massproduced Toyota Prius hatchback are analyzed, considering the automobile-usage environment in Japan.In particular, a breakeven analysis of HEV vs. PHEVvs. BEV is conducted in terms of LCCO2 emissionsthat are affected by (i) outside air temperature and(ii) C〇2 emissions during power generation from thepresent day up to 2030. Our results show that HEVhas the lowest LCCO2 emissions when the currentthermal-power-dependent electricity generation mix(average for 2012-2014) is considered, followed in order by PHEV and BEV. However, it is predicted thatin 2030, PHEV will have the lowest LCCO2 emissions,followed in order by HEV and BEV, as it is anticipated that nuclear and renewable energy sources willbe widely available by 2030. PHEV is expected togain popularity by 2030. Regarding BEV, large quantities of C〇2 emissions are emitted during battery production. Furthermore, due to the domestic electricitygeneration mix from the present day up to 2030, theLCCO2 emissions of BEV will exceed those of HEVand PHEV.