Investors ignore Argentina repayment risks

摘要

Markets are shrugging off looming amortisation spikes in Argentina this year and banking on the current regime muddling through until a more market-friendly government takes the reins of power come the presidential elections in October. Realistic or not, the buyside is nevertheless pricing in that best-case scenario for Argentina, which despite last year's technical default proved to be one of the best performers in the emerging markets universe in 2014. Last year the Argentine sovereign component of the EMBI Global index tightened by 89bp, versus 45p for the overall index. It was a similar story for the country's corporates, which rallied by 143bp compared with a 67bp widening on the corporate emerging market index-the CEMBI.