Rates pick-up and M&A boom lift Q3 prospects: Q3 IB revenues seen down 6%, although rates trading perks up

摘要

Investment banks' revenues are expected to edge back towards more normalised levels in the third quarter as a drop in fixed-income trading outweighs buoyant M&A and ECM fees, although bankers remain optimistic revenues are settling at more elevated levels than before the pandemic. After warnings of a sharp drop in Q3 fixed-income trading after a slow July, analysts said the decline may also be moderated by a decent last six weeks when moves in bond yields sparked trading flow, especially in rates markets last week, the final week of the quarter. Capital markets activity has also remained lively, with a strong deal pipeline.