Drivers of Systemic Banking Crises: The Role of Financial Account Structure and Financial Integration

摘要

This paper examines whether the composition of a country's external liabilities and assets affects its risk of suffering financial turmoil. Using a panel of 184 developed and emerging economies from 1970 to 2009, and looking at the impact of financial account structure in normal times and in situations of bank balance-sheet contagion shocks, we find that the structure of the financial account indeed has an important influence on financial stability. A bias in external liabilities towards debt appears to increase strongly the risk of a systemic banking crisis. Moreover, certain forms of international financial integration, such as integration through international bank lending, amplify contagion shocks and increase crisis risk, particularly in the case of short-term bank debt.