Cross-domain deterrence: strategy in an era of complexity.

摘要

In 1929, Lt Col Schley in his essay 'Some notes on the World War' noted that 'it has been said critically that there is a tendency in many armies to spend the peace time studying how to fight the last war'. Ninety years later, we are still trying to fully comprehend this lesson. The idea that we overanalyse the recent past at the expense of a more thorough review of all available history has taken hold across a range of fields, and has deep roots in psychology through the theory of recency bias. Examples of this phenomenon are found in fields from political science to environmental studies.