Evaluating alternative methods to estimate bus running times by archived automatic vehicle location data

摘要

Bus running times are a key element of time reliability for bus operators and passengers. Hence, their evaluation is crucial in order to build reliable schedules for transit operations. This study analyses three alternative offline methods for estimating bus running times using automatic vehicle location (AVL) data: the average method, the percentile method and an adjusted Kalman filter method, which is amended in order to be implemented for offline use. Experiments are conducted using approximate to 92,000 real-world archived AVL records, which are provided by an Italian bus operator. The results can be used to revise scheduled running times along a specific route by these methods.