Israeli Intelligence and the Czech-Egyptian Arms Deal

摘要

This article uses records, recently made available, to shed new light on the way Israeli intelligence evaluated and interpreted the political and military implications of the Czech-Egyptian arms deal (1955). The evidence suggests that the intelligence services did not have the capabilities to cope with such an event. For the first two months following public exposure of the deal, intelligence was not able to present a coherent and evidence-based description regarding the extent of the deal and its implications. Subsequently, their assessment of the deal's implications evolved from gloomy and anxious to calm and reassuring. Causes of the intelligence service's difficulties in evaluating the situation's effects and the role of their assessment in shaping Israeli policy are discussed.