Gaining Steam

摘要

Analysts of countries' creditworthiness are convinced that the U.S. economic locomotive has gotten up a full head of steam and has well and truly pulled out of the station. After three years of slow growth, U.S. real gross domestic product increased at an 8.2 percent annual rate in 2003's third quarter and 4.1 percent in the fourth. For the whole of last year, GDP growth was 3.1 percent, compared with 2.2 percent in 2002. The U.S. rebound stoked growth in dozens of countries around the world that view the U.S. as a titanic shopper whose charge card never maxes out. That growth makes lending to these exporting nations a safer bet. But paradoxically, the U.S.'s own credit standing did not benefit much from the economy's strong recovery: The weak dollar and the twin deficits ― budget and current account ― more or less canceled out the growth dividend. The economists and country risk analysts from banks, securities firms and money managers worldwide who participated in the current installment of Institutional Investors exclusive Country Credit survey found accelerating economic growth worldwide strong enough to raise the global credit rating to 41.6 on a 100-point scale ― a substantial gain from, last September's 39.6. If the generally low scores of the 21 countries added to the survey six months ago were excluded, the global average would have risen to 44.6, its highest level since March 1982.