The Energy Noncrisis

摘要

In the last 20 years, energy crises, along with higher inflation and tighter monetary policy, have been a major contributing factor to recessions for several reasons. First, higher energy prices reduce real disposable income available for purchasing other goods and services. Second, the spillover effect raises core inflation. Third, higher inflation boosts interest rates and restricts-credit. Fourth, consumer attitudes plunge. Fifth, shortages sometimes have occurred. The last few months have not been immune to these developments: Crude oil prices tripled, natural gas prices briefly quadrupled, and while there were no shortages at the pump, California suffered the indignity of rolling blackouts with threats of more to come. How much did this hurt the economy and how much will the economy improve when these situations are alleviated?