遺伝的アルゴリズムにより算出した最適低圧供給設備形態に対するリスク評価

摘要

Influences of uncertainty in load growth rate and interest rate on total cost of low-voltage distribution facilities was investigated. We assumed that the total cost was composed of initial construction cost, improvement cost and cost of power loss. We also assumed that the distribution facilities were operated for 30 years. Genetic algorithms were used to determine how to construct a cost-effective distribution facilities that did not compromise power quality. Two investment methods were compared. One was that the utility cut down the initial construction cost and improves the initial facilities along with the load growth. The other was that the utility bears the large initial cost without the improvement cost. It was found that the lower cost method depends on the load growth rate and interest rate. It was also found that the influence of uncertainty in load growth rate increases with an increase in the differential between actual load growth rate and expected one.%配電設備は発送変電設備と需要家との間に位置し，需要rn家に直接電力を供給する役割を担っている。配電設備の中rnでも低圧供給設備は設備数が膨大であるため，工事費の数rn%を削減できれば，大幅なコスト削減が期待できる。したrnがって，設備の設置工事費および電力損失費が小さい低圧rn供給設備形態を実現することは重要な課題の一つである。