Decision making in an uncertain world: information-gap modeling in water resources management

摘要

Information-gap (info-gap) modeling is put forth as a basic approach for enhancing decision making under uncertainty, especially when there is a high level of uncertainty and little information is available. The great need for having realistic techniques for describing severe uncertainty can be illustrated in water resource management by pointing out the wide range of uncertainties present in sustainable development when taking into account hydrological, socioeconomic, political, and other considerations. Some illustrative systems problems in watershed management are utilized to explain how info-gap modeling can be employed in practice.