Deep learning models for the prediction of small-scale fisheries catches: finfish fishery in the region of 'Bahia Magadalena-Almejas'

摘要

Globally, over 80% of fisheries are at maximum sustainable levels or overexploited. However, small-scale fisheries (SSFs) in developing countries play a relevant role in coastal communities' development with important impacts on the economy. The SSFs are normally multi-specific and due to the lack of data, studying them by simulation poses an important challenge especially forecasting models. These models are necessary to support management decisions or develop sustainable fisheries; therefore, models based on Deep Learning were proposed to forecast SSFs catch, using data from official catch landing reports (OCLRs), satellite images, and oceanographic data. The finfish fishery in Bahia Magdalena-Almejas (Mexico) was used for the present study. According to an analysis of OCLRs, the target species of major importance in the fishery were identified and selected for the model. The proposed deep learning models used two artificial neural networks structures: non-linear autoregressive neural network and long-short term memory network, which were designed to assess and forecast monthly catch levels of Paralabrax nebulifer and Caulolatilus princeps. Models with a performance efficiency of R0.8, MSE300 were found, which indicate that the models are applicable in SSF with poor data and multi-specific fishery contexts, at low cost.