RISK ANALYSIS OF BOT APPROACHES FOR DEVELOPING TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE

摘要

The Build, Operate and Transfer (BOT) approach is increasingly used in recent years to develop transport infrastructure in many countries. Though the BOT concept appears to be simple, its success in any specific transport infrastructure development project is affected by many uncertainties. The traditionally used estimates of traffic volume, vehicle mode mix, discount rate, associated costs and revenue, and such other parameters may prove unrealistic and unreliable. The Government and the entrepreneur undertaking the BOT projects should be aware of the risks and rewards associated with the project and enter into agreements which are fair to both parties. This paper presents a methodology of the application of stochastic simulation modelling to BOT concepts related to transport projects. It is illustrated with an example of a typical tunnel project on a National Highway in India, proposed to be implemented through the BOT concept.