Analysis of precipitation extremes in the Taihu Basin of China based on the regional L-moment method

摘要

China has suffered from increasingly severe flood events in recent years, most of which are caused by heavy rains. The substantial casualties and damage caused by flooding necessitates a better understanding of precipitation extremes, especially in heavily populated urban areas. Based on L-moments from a regional perspective, this paper analyzes precipitation extremes in the Taihu Basin, utilizing annual maximum daily precipitation and partial duration series at 96 rain gages. The comparison of regional and at-site analysis results shows that the former provides more robust estimates, especially in the upper tail of a distribution (higher quantiles). Also, the use of partial duration series, which captures more information about extreme events, was found to be preferable to describe the extreme precipitation events in the Taihu Basin. Given the recently observed more frequent occurrence and greater magnitude of precipitation extremes, it is suggested that the food design standard used in the basin should be updated, especially for the urbanizing zones.