Analysis of rainfall and large-scale predictors using a stochastic model and artificial neural network for hydrological applications in southern Africa

摘要

Rainfall is a major requirement for many water resources applications, including food production and security. Understanding the main drivers of rainfall and its variability in semi-arid areas is a key to unlocking the complex rainfall processes influencing the translation of rainfall into runoff. In recent studies, temperature and humidity were found to be among rainfall predictors in Botswana and South African catchments when using complex rainfall models based on the generalized linear models (GLMs). In this study, we explore the use of other less complex models such as artificial neural networks (ANNs), and Multiplicative Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (MARIMA) (a) to further investigate the association between rainfall and large-scale rainfall predictors in Botswana, and (b) to forecast these predictors to simulate rainfall at shorter future time scales (October-December) for policy applications. The results indicate that ANN yields better estimates of forecasted temperatures and rainfall than MARIMA.