On model integration in operational flood forecasting

摘要

From the discussion above, it is clear that flood forecasting within the context of an operational flood forecasting and warning system is very different to a scientific modelling exercise. The forecasting models and methods incorporated into the system are a tool in support of the warning, and not a means to themselves. The close integration of these forecasting models and methods within the forecasting system has, however, led to quite a conservative approach in introducing advances from research into the operational arena. Through adopting an open approach, this gap between research and practice can in part be closed, as the continuity of the forecasting service can be maintained independent of the forecasting models and method used, and how these change due to scientific advance.