Temporal sampling strategies and uncertainty in calibrating a conceptual hydrological model for a small boreal catchment

摘要

How much data is needed for calibration of a hydrological catchment model? In this paper we address this question by evaluating the information contained in different subsets of discharge and groundwater time scries for multi-objective calibration of a conceptual hydrological model within the framework of an uncertainty analysis. The study site was a 5.6-km~2 catchment within the Forsmark research site in central Sweden along the Baltic coast. Daily time series data were available for discharge and several groundwater wells within the catchment for a continuous 1065-day period. The hydrological model was a site-specific modification of the conceptual HBV model. The uncertainty analyses were based on a selective Monte Carlo procedure. Thirteen subsets of the complete time series data were investigated with the idea that these represent realistic intermittent sampling strategies. Data subsets included split-samples and various combinations of weekly, monthly, and quarterly fixed interval subsets, as well as a 53-day 'informed observer' subset that utilized once per month samples except during March and April-the months containing large and often dominant snow melt events - when sampling was once per week. Several of these subsets, including that of the informed observer, provided very similar constraints on model calibration and parameter identification as the full data record, in terms of credibility bands on simulated time series, posterior parameter distributions, and performance indices calculated to the full dataset. This result suggests that hydrological sampling designs can, at least in some cases, be optimized.