Taking a Hard Look at Flood] and Precipitation Estimates for the Upper Connecticut River Basin

摘要

In the course of designing and evaluating the safety of dams, it is often necessary to make an estimate of the probable maximum flood (PMF). To make such an estimate, it is first required to have an accurate estimate of the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) for input into a hydro-logic model. In most of the eastern U.S., the PMP is estimated based on guidance given by Hydro-meteorological Report (HMR) Numbers 51 and 52, published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. HMRs 51 and 52 produce generalized PMP estimates that may be deficient in certain regions where terrain has a pronounced effect on rainfall.