Prediction is still relevant

摘要

Ian Cameron's article in the June edition of Highways is a subjective and not a numerate analysis. It is important not to accept that prediction has been kicked into the long grass, even if provision has in recent years. A better slogan might be "predict and provide taking into account restraint." A great deal of work had been done in the past on improved accessibility to understand the phenomena arising from improved travel cost. They are: 1. Generation - making a trip for the first time 2. Redistribution - Change of destination 3. Reassignment - Same trip different route The outcome was that generated trips were marginal, but redistributed and reassigned trips were dominant and provide the first year benefit of the investment. Beyond opening growth was created by both growth in the economy and growth in land use. Changes in land use had a significant effect on the distribution of trips in future years.