It's not the despair that gets to you, as comedian John Cleese once put it - it's the hope.The quip resonates as the world swings from high to low in our battle against coronavirus. Just last month, this column rejoiced at news of the first approved COVID vaccine and several others have followed since. New Year's Eve felt cathartic as we waved goodbye to the wretched 2020 and ushered in a new zodiac with fresh optimism.But then came the hangover. Fresh lockdowns in Europe were followed by news flashes of a deadly UK virus strain, then a breakaway Brazilian type, and not forgetting a super strength South African variant. Once again national borders closed and aspirations of packing a bucket and spade for a summer break have been buried by talk of a 14-day hotel quarantine period upon return.It leaves aviation operators feeling as if they're being tasked with writing a business plan while being placed in a washing machine spin cycle. So, let's gather our thoughts for a moment and seek some stability amid disorientating times.Firstly, volumes will pick up, albeit slowly, this year as forecast by stakeholders at GHI's Digital Reconnect. The smart money is on a 60% recovery by Q4. However, mutant COVID streams and vaccine delays may strike, so expect the recovery to be choppy and regional.
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