Research on construction and application of the GM(1,1) forecast model of Olympics track and field achievements

摘要

Purpose - The paper attempts to establish GM(1,1) grey prediction model group for the top three Olympic track and field sports performance, and to predict the 30th London Olympic track and field results and its tendency using grey systems theory. Design/methodology/approach - Athletics sports achievements are influenced by many factors, such as the physical quality, athletes individual growth cycle, and injuring or retirement of excellent athletes, the outstanding performance of some athletes, the using of high-tech sports training instrument, the implementation plan of scientific training guidance, the introduction of advanced technology, facilities and improvement, and so on. Those aspects can make the match result uncertain, which are running in a uncertain and continually changing environment, so sports achievements have obviously grey features. Combined with grey modeling methods, and aimed at the top three Olympic track and field sports performance, this paper established GM (1,1) grey prediction model group and analysed the trend of Olympic track and field. And in the end of the paper, the 30th Olympic men's and women's the top three athletic achievements prediction intervals are also predicted. Findings - The results show that forecasting model group has high-precision. In the 46 champions prediction models, three models have the forecast accuracy of 100 percent; 27 models' forecast accuracy are greater than 99.5 percent, and the rest of the models forecast accuracy are greater than 98.58 percent. In the 46 silver medalists prediction models, five models have the forecast accuracy of 100 percent; 33 models' forecast accuracy are greater than 99.5 percent and the rest of the models' forecast accuracy is greater than 98.48 percent. In the 46 bronze medalist prediction models, four models have the forecast accuracy of 100 percent; 25 models' forecast accuracy is greater than 99.5 percent and the rest of the models forecast accuracy is greater than 98.76 percent. The essay deeply analyzes the top three achievements' trend of Olympic Games Track and field. In the end, the paper predicts the 30th Olympic track and field results. Practical implications - The method exposed in the paper can be used for the short-term or long-term prediction of sports scores metering in international competition (such as track and field, swimming, rowing, etc.), and also for personal athletic performance prediction. Originality/value - The paper succeeds in realising both grey prediction model group for the top three Olympic track and field performance in all projects, and prediction of the 30th London Olympic track and field results by using the newest developed theories: grey systems theory.