Informational efficiency and spurious spillover effects between spot and derivatives markets

摘要

Derivatives markets produce the means for price discovery as leading indicators in the transmission of new information. Examining volatility spillovers between spot and derivatives markets without accounting for possible disequilibria in the long term relationship could potentially result in spurious spillover effects. Our paper aims to contribute in this literature by controlling for possible disturbances in the long-run equilibrium relationship between the two markets. By application of a regime shift approach we provide evidence of a time varying spillover effect from derivatives to spot markets. However, this effect is inconclusive in the absence of a significant (1 - 1) cointegration relationship.