A method for evaluating the extreme risk sources of financial markets: The case of stock markets in China

摘要

Risk contagion has attracted increasing research attention in recent years. In this paper, we combined conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), Bayesian quantile regression and Granger causality test to propose a Bayesian CVaR-Granger causality test method, which is an efficient tool in analyzing sources of extreme risks in a financial market. Using this method, we determined the sources of extreme risks in major stock markets in China.