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Spatially downscaling GCMs outputs to project changes in extreme precipitation and temperature events on the Loess Plateau of China during the 21st Century

机译:GCM产出的空间缩减,以预测21世纪中国黄土高原极端降水和温度事件的变化

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摘要

A simple transfer function method is used to spatially downscale extreme precipitation and temperature indices of six GCMs (CNRM-CM3, GFDL-CM2.1, INM-CM3.0, IPSL-CM4, MIROC3.2_M and NCAR-PCM) under three emission scenarios (A1B, A2, Bl) from grid outputs to target station to project their potential spatio-temporal changes on the Loess Plateau of China during the 21st century. GCMs project that extreme climate events will keep the present change trend, i.e. longer heatwave duration and growing season length, less cold extremes, smaller annual extreme temperature range, more frequent and intense precipitation, and longer drought duration; and climate models suggest that the changes during the 21st century are a further amplification of those at present. Spatial variations exist in the changes of extreme indices, the greatest changes will occur in the southeast and northwest region for extreme precipitation indices while in the north and southeast region for extreme temperature events. The projected changes in extreme climate will possibly bring great impacts on the soil losses and agriculture on the Loess Plateau and countermeasures should be planned.
机译:一种简单的传递函数方法用于在三个排放下对六个GCM(CNRM-CM3,GFDL-CM2.1,INM-CM3.0,IPSL-CM4,MIROC3.2_M和NCAR-PCM)的极端降水和温度指数进行空间缩减从电网输出到目标站的情景(A1B,A2,B1),以预测其在21世纪中国黄土高原上的潜在时空变化。 GCM预测,极端气候事件将保持当前的变化趋势,即更长的热浪持续时间和生长季节长度,更少的寒冷极端,更小的年度极端温度范围,更频繁和强烈的降水以及更长的干旱持续时间;气候模型表明,21世纪的变化是当前变化的进一步放大。极端指数的变化存在空间变化,极端降水指数的变化最大的是东南和西北地区,极端温度事件的变化最大的是东北和东南地区。预计的极端气候变化可能会给黄土高原的土壤流失和农业带来巨大影响,应制定对策。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Global and planetary change》 |2012年第2期|p.65-73|共9页
  • 作者单位

    College of Resources and Environment, Northwest A &F University, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China,Institute of Water Saving Agriculture in Arid Areas of China, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China;

    Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, CAS &MWR, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China;

    Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, CAS &MWR, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China;

    Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yantai, 264003, China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    climate change; extreme temperature events; loess plateau; spatial downscaling;

    机译:气候变化;极端温度事件;黄土高原空间缩小;

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