Securing Energy for India: Race for Oil, Gas or Coal?

摘要

Energy needs and control over energy supplies are central to strategic planning of all the major powers. They are no less important for countries like India and China that are rapidly emerging as large consumers of commercial energy forms. The Indian economy has been growing at over 6% per year, while China's economic growth is around 9%. Estimates indicate that if India and China maintain their current rates of economic growth for the next 10 to 20 years, both economies will double in size, and will surpass other economic powerhouses in the world, such as Japan, the US and the EU (IEA, 2005). The likely emergence of India and China as new major global players, similar to the rise of Germany in the 19th century and the US in the early 20th century, will transform the geopolitical landscape with impacts potentially as dramatic as those of the previous two centuries. The concomitant energy needs would be humongous, and according to the IEA, total primary energy requirement (including biomass) for India would be around 1000 million tons of oil equivalent (mtoe) by 2030, accounting for about 6% of the global energy requirement. The future needs for commercial energy will also encompass the fact that consumers hitherto consuming traditional forms of energy will also graduate to commercial forms, thereby bolstering the demand for commercial fuels.