Not So Gecfast. Natural Gas Exporters Will Require Discipline, Creativity To Wield Significant Market Power

摘要

In his article, Mr. Edward Kott explores the probable success and potential hurdles of the gas producers under the umbrella of the newly-formed Gas Exporting Countries Forum, (GECF), which was established in Doha, Qatar in February 2008. The article draws on the structure and history of OPEC in order to explore the prospects of GECF. Notable differences in international trade of oil relative to natural gas exist: natural gas is not as liquid and is subject to physical market segmentation. The resource endowments of natural gas among GECF countries vary as well with notable differences in the regulatory structures of LNG amongst producers. The author infers that gas producers in non-GECF countries are potentially more responsive to sustained high prices than are oil producers in non-OPEC countries, and the full natural gas resource base at their disposal is very large. Investigating the consumers' side, Mr. Kott suggests that gas consumers in Europe benefit from strong policies, including carbon emission policies; European oil consumers, on the other hand, do not see such benefit. As well, gas consumption peaks in the winter due to heating demand - demand that does not enjoy the flexibility of short-term fuel switching available to the power and industrial sectors. GECF members are acutely aware of this seasonality and may choose to coordinate action to drive up winter prices when consuming countries are less able to conserve gas. The most recent Russia/ Ukraine conflict illustrated this dynamic in vivid detail as Eastern Europeans resorted to carting coal and wood to their homes as a stopgap measure. In the end, however, Mr. Kott argues that the success of the GECF will critically depend on its internal harmony as well as its ingenuity in taking advantage of the idiosyncrasies of regional natural gas markets.