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Calibration and Test of a Discrete Choice Model with Endogenous Choice Sets

机译:具有内生选择集的离散选择模型的校准和测试

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摘要

Conventional discrete choice models assume implicitly that the choice set is independent of the decisionmaker's preferences conditional on the explanatory variables of the models. This assumption is implausible in many choice situations where the decisionmaker selects his or her choice set. This paper estimates and tests a discrete choice model with endogenous choice sets based on Horowitz' theoretical work. To calibrate the model, a new probability simulator is introduced and a sequential estimation procedure is developed. The model and calibration methods are tested in an empirical application as well as Monte Carlo simulations. The empirical results are used to test the theory of endogenous choice sets and to examine the differences between the new model and a conventional choice model in parameter estimates and predicted choice probabilities. The empirical results strongly suggest that ignoring the endogeneity of choice sets in choice modeling can have serious consequences in applications.
机译:传统的离散选择模型隐含地假设选择集独立于决策者的偏好,条件是模型的解释变量。在决策者选择其选择集的许多选择情况下,这种假设是不可信的。本文基于Horowitz的理论工作,估计并测试了具有内生选择集的离散选择模型。为了校准模型,引入了新的概率模拟器并开发了顺序估计程序。该模型和校准方法已在经验应用以及蒙特卡洛模拟中进行了测试。实证结果用于检验内生选择集的理论,并检查新模型与常规选择模型之间在参数估计和预测选择概率方面的差异。实证结果强烈表明,在选择建模中忽略选择集的内生性会对应用程序产生严重影响。

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  • 来源
    《Geographical analysis》 |1998年第2期|95-118|共24页
  • 作者

    Jian Dai;

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