Short-term load forecasting of Australian National Electricity Market by an ensemble model of extreme learning machine

摘要

Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has been recognized as a powerful method for short-term load forecasting (STLF) of power systems. However, traditional ANNs are mostly trained by gradient-based learning algorithms which usually suffer from excessive training and tuning burden as well as unsatisfactory generalization performance. Based on the ensemble learning strategy, this paper develops an ensemble model of a promising novel learning technology called extreme learning machine (ELM) for high-quality STLF of Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). The model consists of a series of single ELMs. During the training, the ensemble model generalizes the randomness of single ELMs by selecting not only random input parameters but also random hidden nodes within a pre-defined range. The forecast result is taken as the median value the single ELM outputs. Owing to the very fast training/tuning speed of ELM, the model can be efficiently updated to on-line track the variation trend of the electricity load and maintain the accuracy. The developed model is tested with the NEM historical load data and its performance is compared with some state-of-the-art learning algorithms. The results show that the training efficiency and the forecasting accuracy of the developed model are superior over the competitive algorithms.