Credibility forecasting in short-term load forecasting and its application

摘要

It is very helpful for power system operation to assess and forecast the uncertainty of the load forecasting. The improved credibility assessment index of the short-term load forecasting results is presented to assess the uncertainty in this study. The forecasting method for credibility of short-term load forecasting is also proposed by adopting genetic algorithm-based back propagation neural network. In the case study, it is proved that the improved credibility assessment can evaluate the short-term load forecasting results and the forecasting methods. Meanwhile, the credibility forecasting can contribute to optimise reserve capacity in power system scheduling.