Using price shocks to time the market

摘要

We may not be able to predict price shocks before they occur and profit off of them, but we can use those shocks as opportunities to position ourselves for the next move. In this first of two parts, we examine the relevance of price shocks to future price direction.rnAt any given time, the price of a real commodity (such as the meats or grains) depends upon numerous independent variables. Cocoa prices are a product of the weather in Africa, the cost of shipping, government policies, the availability of substitute crops, pests, consumption levels, etc. Essentially, all of the various factors can be grouped as those affecting supply or those affecting demand.