CRUDE • CORN • COTTON

摘要

Last month we noted the new commercial net short record crude oil position. Since then commercial traders set a new record total of almost two million contracts. This eclipses the previous record set in 2007. Correspondingly, the record speculative long position has been cited in many places. The speculators are net long 4.5 contracts for every short position. This is the highest it has been since they reached 6.2:1 at crude's last high in June 2014. This leaves the speculators vulnerable to a pullback in prices. The commercial traders have been selling forward crude production while buying crude oil's refined products: gas and heating oil. Petroleum companies are value players who expect the price of crude oil to fall more than the sum of its products. The commercial traders' application of hedging strategies helps limit their risk while waiting for the speculators to give up and be washed out.