What life-course research can contribute to futures studies

摘要

Futures studies is a multidisciplinary field that integrates disciplinary information through discussion. This article integrates information from life-course research with futures studies. Life course research explores how human lives develop over time, focusing on the past and present. Futures studies may use this information to explore possible, probable, and preferable future developments of human lives. Life-course research defines a stable social context and standardized life-courses as a requirement for futures studies under shallow uncertainty. In this situation, important experiences in a person's life and social institutions create life-course patterns that may inform deterministic forecasts. Futures studies under medium uncertainty may be carried out when life-courses change gradually over time or when similar countries are compared. Here, personality also creates life-course patterns that may inform probabilistic forecasts. When social contexts change fundamentally or unexpectedly, then futures studies under deep uncertainty are called for. In this situation, important events, social institutions, and personality may inform foresight on future life-course patterns. Finally, futures studies under recognized ignorance may use previous life-course research for inspiration. These insights contribute to cumulative knowledge building, and they underline the opportunities and limitations of futures studies.