The futures of terrorism against China in the Greater Middle East

摘要

China's rising investment and engagement with countries in the Greater Middle East underlines its rising exposure to security threats in this region. The countries have been often associated with a high threat of terrorism thus increasing risk for various stakeholders. To analyse the potential ways these threats might unfold in the future, four scenarios of possible terrorism against China are put forward. In each scenario, various levels of Chinese economic engagement interact with local regimes which in turn leads to differing containments of potential terrorist threats. A preferable scenario "United Front" is identified for its low risk for Chinese interest in the region and its success of economic strategy implemented by China. However, this preferable scenario (for China) calls into question how China can achieve its high influence in the region through investment without perpetuating a state of surveillance model that might not be conducive to peace on the long run. Therefore, we provide preliminary policy guidelines to achieve China's original diplomatic and economic aims while decreasing the likelihood of terrorism without incurring in possible humanitarian losses in the region.