The four spikes

摘要

The unintended impacts of human appropriation of the planet's resources have become so numerous, voluminous, and entangled in feedback loops that they often overwhelm the capacities of decisionmakers to cope with current crises, much less prepare for a sustainable future. The difficulty may be alleviated by viewing global change from a broader perspective than is normally offered either by specialists (whose views are necessarily narrow) or by mainstream media (whose interests are usually fragmentary and parochial). From this broader perspective, it can be seen that four “megaphenomena” began sweeping the planet in the past century. Graphed on a time-line of millennia rather than years or days, they appear as four enormous “spikes” -- of human population, materials/energy consumption, carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere, and extinctions of species. These megaphenomena account for the proliferation of afflictions swamping humanity at the outset of the 21st century. Under- standing the nature of the spikes may offer the most viable means of managing -- by attacking the roots -- of what could otherwise escalate into an increasingly disastrous cascade of impacts.