Arctic climate change and oil spill risk analysis

摘要

The purpose of this project was to: 1) describe the effects of climate change in the Arctic and its impact on circulation, 2) describe hindcast data used in the Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement (BOEMRE) Oil Spill Risk Analysis (OSRA) model, 3) evaluate alternatives such as using forecast results in the OSRA model, and 4) recommend future studies. Effects of climate change on winds, sea ice, ocean circulation and river discharge in the Arctic and impacts on surface circulation can be evaluated only through a series of specially designed numerical experiments using highresolution coupled ice-ocean models to elucidate the sensitivity of the models to various parameterizations or forcings. The results of these experiments will suggest what mechanisms are most important in controlling model response and guide inferences on how OSRA may respond to different climate change scenarios. Climatological change in the Arctic could lead to drastic alterations of wind, sea ice cover and concentration, and surface current fields all of which would influence hypothetical oil spill trajectories. Because of the pace at which conditions are changing, BOEMRE needs to assess whether forecast ice/ocean model results might contain useful information for the purposes of calculating hypothetical oil spill trajectories.