It's pretty clear to me that a bear market is approaching. Record volatility is one warning sign. Near-record margin debt on speculative issues is another. Then there's the humbling of red-hot initial public offerings: Until mid-March this year's new issues shot up an average of 120% on their first day of trading. Now 65% of the 2000 crop are trading below their offering prices. Nasdaq's story is particularly disquieting. Before its recent (temporary) rally, it had fallen more than it had during the 1987 crash and the 1973-74 slump. That's the sharpest break in the postwar period.
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