STILL VULNERABLE

摘要

Where are we now? by the S&P 500 measure, the stock market is off 16% from its peak in March 2000. But in longer perspective, calculations by Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel suggest that, counting dividends and adjusting for inflation, the market is still about 25% above its 1801-2000 average growth trend. To get back to that average trend the market would have to move sideways until 2005. That doesn't rule out the possibility of a quick zoom upward, but it makes it less likely.