REVISITING 'SUBSISTENCE CRISES': THE CHARACTERISTICS OF DEMOGRAPHIC CRISES IN FRANCE IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE 19TH CENTURY

摘要

According to traditional accounts, France underwent a serious crisis in 1846. Although it has never really been proven, it is held that the crisis was due to an enormous deficit in agricultural production. The study of price fluctuations, where price increases are taken to be proportional to production deficits, has led to the characterization'of this crisis as a subsistence crisis. Certain historians have even noted strong demographic repercussions, in particular an increase in mortality. This article proposes to reassess the importance of this crisis. It also re-examines the different economic and demographic variables and the relationships between them at a national and regional level. In fact, as far as the demographics are concerned, this crisis turned out to be of a low magnitude, particularly when compared to the crises resulting from cholera in the 1830s. This first observation leads to an assessment of the real importance of production deficits. Contrary to the famines of the end of the 17th century, this crisis, although labelled a subsistence crisis, is characterized by a rather low deficit in cereal production. Substitutes such as potatoes, buckwheat, maize, and imports limited the effect of the crisis. As far as price increases are concerned, they appear to be non-proportional to production deficits: the two variables are not correlated.