Fire and Rescue Service circa 2040: meeting the 'known unknowns'

摘要

Peter Hennessy, Lord Hennessy of Nympsfield, published the book, Distilling the Frenzy. The book was sub-titled, 'Writing the History of One's Own Times' and included a chapter on the craft and importance of 'horizon scanning'. According to the Organisation of Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), horizon scanning is: 'A technique for detecting early signs of potentially important developments through a systematic examination of potential threats and opportunities... The method calls for determining what is constant, what changes, and what constantly changes. It explores novel and unexpected issues as well as persistent problems and trends, including matters at the margins of current thinking that challenge past assumptions'. Horizon scanning can help organisations develop strategies to meet future events that are both known and unknown, and even, as Donald Rumsfeld once said, known unknowns, the "things we know we don't know".