Multi-criteria group decision making under uncertainty with application to air traffic safety

摘要

There are many methods for solving problems of multi-criteria group decision making under uncertainty conditions. It is quite often that decision makers cannot formulate unequivocally their individual preference relations between variants. Analysing the causes of a serious aircraft incident is an example where a group of experts is required to have a very detailed yet interdisciplinary knowledge. Obviously, each expert has only a fraction of such knowledge. Hence, experts can make fuzzy evaluations when they are not sure about them or it is not possible to gain full knowledge. There is a need for a method that in such a case takes into account the strength of preference expressed in the significance of each criterion. Both the significance of criteria and the scores assigned to variants can be represented using fuzzy expressions. The proposed method reflects the problems of decision making when both objective (represented using non-fuzzy expressions) and subjective (represented using linguistic expressions) criteria, are involved. The proposed method enables to obtain a solution without having to conduct negotiations between decision makers. This is of advantage when there is a risk that some experts will be dominated by others. The method not only helps define a single preferred solution but also create the preference relation within a group. By applying this method, it is possible to reproduce the actual preference relations of individual decision makers. Presenting them to decision makers may induce them to change their evaluation of the weights of criteria or how they score variants.