Rising Age at Marriage and Fertility in Southern and Eastern Africa

摘要

This paper examines the trends in marriage and fertility in nine countries of southern and eastern Africa using DHS data. First, some background about the age at marriage, age at first birth and the proportion of premarital first births is shown. Next, the total fertility is decomposed into its pre- and post-marital parts. Then, pre- and post-marital fertility are examined in more detail. Finally, the effect of rising age at marriage on the fertility declines is measured. It is estimated that around one sixth to one third of the fertility declines are due to rising age at marriage.