Volatility dependences of stock markets with structural breaks

摘要

We develop a Vector Heterogeneous Autoregression model with Continuous Volatility and Jumps (VHARCJ) where residuals follow a flexible dynamic heterogeneous covariance structure. We employ the Bayesian data augmentation approach to match the realised volatility series based on high-frequency data from six stock markets. The structural breaks in the covariance are captured by an exogenous stochastic component that follows a three-state Markov regime-switching process. We find that the stock markets have higher volatility dependence during turmoil periods and that breakdowns in volatility dependence can be attributed to the increase in market volatilities. We also find positive correlations between the Asian stock markets, the European stock market, and the UK stock market. The US stock market has positive correlations with all other markets for most of the sample periods, indicating the leading position of US stock market in the global stock markets. In addition, the proposed three-state VHARCJ model with Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) and break structure under student-t-distribution has a superior density forecast performance as compared to the competing models. The forecast models with structural breaks outperform those without structural breaks based on the log predicted likelihood, the log Bayesian factor, and the root mean square loss function.