Modeling Fate, Transport, and Biological Uptake of Selenium in North San Francisco Bay

摘要

Selenium behavior in North San Francisco Bay, the largest estuary on the US Pacific coast, is simulated using a numerical model. This work builds upon a previously published application for simulating selenium in the bay and considers point and non-point sources, transport and mixing of selenium, transformations between different species of selenium, and biological uptake by phytoplankton, bivalves, and higher organisms. An evaluation of the calibrated model suggests that it is able to represent salinity, suspended material, and chlorophyll a under different flow conditions beyond the calibration period, through comparison against long-term data, and the distribution of different species of dissolved and particulate selenium. Model-calculated selenium concentrations in bivalves compared well to a long-term dataset, capturing the annual and seasonal variations over a 15-year period. In particular, the observed lower bivalve concentrations in the wet flow periods, corresponding to lower average particulate selenium concentrations in the bay, are well represented by the model, demonstrating the role of loading and hydrology in affecting clam concentrations. Simulated selenium concentrations in higher organisms including white sturgeon and greater scaup also compared well to the observed data in the bay. Finally, a simulation of changing riverine inflows into the bay that might occur as a consequence of proposed hydrologic modifications indicated significant increases in dissolved and particulate selenium concentrations in the bay. The modeling framework allows an examination of the relationship between selenium loads, variations in inflow, in-bay concentrations, and biota concentrations to support management for limiting wildlife impacts.