Economic Developments in China and their Impact on the Global Non-Ferrous Metals Industry

摘要

Mit der raschen Entwicklung als Wirtschaftsmacht seit Anfang der 80er Jahre wurde China zum Hauptabnehmer von NE-Metallen. Dies deutet auf erhebliche Investitionen in der Entwicklung der Infrastruktur, der Fabriken und Ausrüstung, der Bauaktivitäten und der Herstellung langlebiger Güter für den Binnenmarkt hin. Gewisse Teile des chinesischen Produktionspotentials drängen jedoch auch auf die Exportmärkte, so dass China zum „Fabrikanten für die ganze Welt" wird. Dies versacht ein langsameres Wachstum der Metallindustrie in anderen Ländern. Chinas Rohstoffhunger zieht Investitionen in neue Bergbauprojekte im benachbarten Ausland nach sich, und chinesische Unternehmen suchen nach Beteiligungen an etablierten globalen Bergbaukonzernen und Metallproduzenten - Übernahmen nicht ausgeschlossen.%Since the early 1980s China has emerged as a major economic force in global markets. It is now the world's second largest national economy when measured on a purchasing power parity basis and has made a very significant contribution to global growth in recent years. Since the beginning of the 21st century, growth of industrial production in China has accounted for over half of global growth, with accession to the WTO in late 2001 undoubtedly providing additional impetus to an economy that was already expanding fast. Unsurprisingly, developments in China have had a dramatic impact on many industries, with natural resource industries, including non-ferrous metals, at the forefront of developments. - Not only has China been responsible for half of global industrial production growth since 2000, it has also provided most of the growth in metals demand. Its contribution has been most important for copper and lead accounting for almost all consumption growth in recent year, with demand elsewhere no better than stable. Growth in metals demand in China has reflected significant spending on infrastructure developments, investment in plant and equipment, construction activities and production of durable goods for domestic markets. However, some of China's manufacturing industries have also been oriented towards export markets, China becoming "the workshop of the world". The impact of this has been slower growth in metals use elsewhere as a result of the relocation of manufacturing capacity to China. - Producers of most metals and their raw materials have benefited from developments in China because of significantly higher prices since Q4 2003. In some cases, new records have been set. It appears that the scale of China's economic growth and its demand for raw materials took the metals industry somewhat by surprise. Inventories of several metals have been drawn down to historically low levels and the industry faces difficulties in responding rapidly to current higher demand. With prices exceptionally low just a few years ago, there are few mine or smelters projects in the pipeline that can be developed in the near term. - China's hunger for raw materials has meant that it has also begun to invest abroad in new mining projects. To date Chinese companies have taken interests in projects in several neighbouring countries, including Pakistan, Mongolia and Vietnam. Some projects in SE Asia have also benefited from Chinese funding. And Chinese enterprises have also looked seriously at taking full or part-ownership of long-established global mining and smelting companies, including Canadian major Noranda.