Emissions of greenhouse gases attributable to the activities of the land transport: modelling and analysis using I-CIR stochastic diffusion-The case of Spain

摘要

In this study, carried out on the basis of the conclusions and methodological recommendations of the Fourth Assessment Report (2007) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we consider the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), and particularly those of CO_2, attributable to the activities of land transport, for all sectors of the economy, as these constitute a significant proportion of total GHG emissions. In particular, the case of Spain is an example of a worrying situation in this respect, both in itself and in the context of the European Union. To analyse the evolution, in this case, of such emissions, to enable medium-term forecasts to be made and to obtain a model that will enable us to analyse the effects of possible corrector mechanisms, we have statistically fitted a inverse Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (I-CIR) type nonlinear stochastic diffusion process, on the basis of the real data measured for the period 1990-2004, during which the Kyoto protocol has been applicable. We have studied the evolution of the trend of these emissions using estimated trend functions, for which purpose probabilistic complements such as trend functions and stationary distribution are incorporated, and a statistical methodology (estimation and asymptotic inference) for this diffusion, these tools being necessary for the application of the analytical methodology proposed.