Future scenarios for a sustainable water sector: A case study from Switzerland

摘要

Uncertainties about the long-term prospects of urban water management systems have increased substantially over the past decade due to an increasing variety of regulations, technologies, and demand structures. In Switzerland, this uncertainty is mirrored by growing difficulties of utility managers and (waste)water scientists to agree on shared strategies: Water professionals demand support for pressing management problems, while researchers fundamentally question the longer-term sustainability of the established water management system. To reestablish shared orientation, we conducted a foresight study for the Swiss (waste)water sector in 2004. Based on interviews with 29 experts from Swiss water management and research to collect 56 drivers of change, a team of 17 experts developed three scenarios: (A) regional mergers of water utilities leading to enhanced professionalism in the sector, (B) consequent material flows management leading to a radically restructured urban water management system, and (C) generalized financial crisis leading to a breakdown of centralized utility services. These scenarios helped identifying shared research priorities. We conclude that scenario analysis is a powerful tool for framing long-term strategies, defining priorities, and integrating different interests in the multidisciplinary contexts of sustainability science, which are marked by high uncertainties and concern a wide range of stakeholder groups.