cientific advice on species at risk: a comparative analysis of status assessments of polar bear, Ursus maritimus

摘要

Abstract: The assessment of species believed to be at heightened risk of extinction must be underpinned by scientificnevaluations of past and predicted changes in abundance and distribution. When these assessments are communicated to so-nciety and (or) government, they provide an informed scientific basis for public policy decisions pertaining to the protectionnof biodiversity. The provision of advice for high-profile species can be particularly challenging as different interest groupsnmay seek to over- or under-play a species’ degree of endangerment. Those challenges are highlighted here by a compara-ntive analysis of assessments of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) undertaken recently in Canada, the United States, and by thenWorld Conservation Union (IUCN). Perceived differences in these assessments can be partly attributable to differences innthe species status categories used by different organizations, the nature and application of assessment criteria, and thenlegislative responsibilities of those undertaking the assessments. Our analysis also highlights differences in how status as-nsessments have informed the scientific basis for discordant projections of the future magnitude of polar bear habitat andnpopulation change. We conclude that evaluations of the scientific merits associated with any species status are hindered bynimperfect understanding of differences in assessment protocols. Scientific advice potentially informed, but ultimatelynundermined, by personal and institutional biases serves neither decision-makers nor society well.